Search
  • Pooja Ambala

Indian economy growth rate in last 10 years

Updated: May 2




GDP growth rate in percentage terms at market prices based on constant local currency. The figures are in constant 2010 US dollars. GDP is calculated as the complete gross value added by all resident producers in the economy, plus any product taxes, minus any subsidies not included in the product value. It is calculated without considering the depreciation of manufactured assets or natural resource depletion and degradation.


In 2020, India's GDP growth rate was -7.96 percent, down 12.01 percent from 2019.


The growth rate of India's GDP in 2019 was 4.04 percent, down 2.49 percent from 2018.

The growth rate of India's GDP in 2018 was 6.53 percent, down 0.26 percent from 2017.

The growth rate of India's GDP in 2017 was 6.80 percent, down 1.46 percent from 2016.


Following a negative growth of 7.3 percent in the previous quarter, India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 0.4 percent YoY in December 2020.


India's Real GDP Growth YoY data is updated quarterly and covers the period from June 2005 to December 2020, with an average rate of 7.3 percent.


The data ranged from a high of 13.3 percent in March 2010 to a low of -24.4 percent in June 2020.


Real GDP Growth is calculated by CEIC using quarterly Real GDP. Real GDP in local currency, based on SNA 2008, at 2011-2012 prices, is provided by the Central Statistics Office. Before Q2 2012, real GDP was calculated using a combination of SNA 2008 and SNA 1993 at 2004-2005 prices.


Additional information on India's Real GDP Growth


According to recent reports, India's nominal GDP reached 739.3 USD in December 2020.

In December 2020, the GDP deflator (implicit price deflator) increased by 4.8 percent.

In March 2021, India's GDP per capita was 1,947.4 USD.

In March 2020, it had a Gross Savings Rate of 31.4 percent.

Investment accounted for 32.5 percent of nominal GDP contributions in September 2021.

In September 2021, public consumption accounted for 11.1 percent of total consumption.

In September 2021, private consumption accounted for 57.3 percent of total consumption.


Let's take a separately with years:


2013-2014:


Even as policymakers and analysts now believe the worst is over and the country will steadily move towards a higher expansion rate, the $1.8 trillion Indian economy experienced its worst slowdown in over 10 years, with growth below 5% for four consecutive quarters, threatening a rating downgrade.


India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew at less than 5% in the first three quarters of the calendar year for which official data is available—by 4.8 percent, 4.4 percent, and 4.8 percent, respectively in the first three quarters of the calendar year.

In the October-December 2012 quarter, it increased by 4.7%. As a result, the average growth rate for the first three quarters of 2013 is 4.6 percent, the slowest since 2002.

According to the IMF's latest world economic outlook, India is on track to become a $2 trillion economy this year, and its GDP will reach $three trillion after five years in 2019.

In 2019, India's ranking would rise to the seventh-largest economy globally, based on "current prices" in US dollars, up from tenth place currently.

According to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India's economy will be worth $2.05 trillion this year, up from $1.88 trillion in 2013.


2015-2016:


According to data released by the statistics department on Tuesday, India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.9% in 2015-16, compared to an earlier estimate of 7.6%.

According to the statistics department, India's economic growth is expected to slow to 7.1 percent in 2016-17, down from 7.6 percent the previous year, owing primarily to an industrial slowdown. It did not, however, consider the potential impact of demonetization.


According to Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian's Economic Survey 2016-17, the demonetization exercise could slow GDP growth by 25-50 basis points in 2016-17, based on a baseline growth assumption of 7%. A basis point is equal to 0.01 percent.

The survey predicted that the economy would grow from 6.75 percent to 7.5 percent in


The most significant reason for the upward revision of the 2015-16 data was substantial growth estimates for the industrial and services sectors. While the industrial sector is now expected to grow at 8.2 percent, up from 7.4 percent previously, the services sector is expected to grow at 9.9 percent, up from 8.9 percent previously. However, the farm sector's growth rate was reduced to 0.76 percent from 1.2 percent previously estimated.


2017-2018:


The Indian economy appears to be on the mend, as it has reclaimed the title of the world's fastest-growing economy. India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 7.7% in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2017-18, according to data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on Thursday. India surpassed China's GDP growth of 6.8% reported for the quarter ended March, thanks to an increase in GDP growth during the three months of

March.


According to government data, the Indian economy experienced overall GDP growth of 6.7 percent in the fiscal year that ended on March 31, 2018. The Indian economy grew by 7.1 percent in the previous fiscal year.


The economy's Gross Value Added (GVA) growth, which excludes the impact of indirect taxes and subsidies, was 7.6% in the March quarter, bringing the total for the fiscal year 2017-18 to 6.5 percent. In addition, the growth rate for the December quarter of FY18 has been revised from 7% to 7.2 percent, as previously announced in February.

The fiscal deficit for the fiscal year came in at Rs 5.92 lakh crore or 3.52 percent of total GDP. Before the Union Budget, the fiscal deficit target was set at 3.2 percent of GDP, later revised to 3.5 percent.


According to government data, GDP growth in the March quarter of the previous fiscal year was at its highest level since the September quarter of 2016-17, just before the demonetization of the Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes. After surviving the adverse effects of demonetization and a shaky Goods and Services Tax regime, this also marks the beginning of the Indian economy's recovery.


According to government data, all core sectors grew significantly in the fourth quarter of FY18 compared to the previous quarter. During the March quarter, the agriculture, manufacturing, and construction sectors grew at 4.5 percent, 9.1 percent, and 11.5 percent, respectively. The financing, real estate, and insurance segment increased by 5%, while government spending-related public administration increased by 13.3%.


The Reserve Bank of India has enough room to consider a rate hike during its bi-monthly monetary policy meeting next week, thanks to the strong growth rate. Meanwhile, according to a Bloomberg report, a breakdown of expenditures revealed that consumption in the economy remained stable while investment continued to recover at a healthy pace.


All macroeconomic numbers are positive, and even the agricultural sector performed well in Q4, said Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg in a press conference following the release of the GDP figures. Garg dismissed the impact of high gasoline and diesel prices on the Indian economy, saying that there are no signs that oil prices are affecting GDP forecasts for FY19.


Garg stated that any reduction in the excise duty levied on transportation fuel will correspond to fiscal numbers.


2019-2020:


Due to contraction in secondary sectors such as manufacturing and construction, the economic growth rate for 2019-20 has been reduced to 4% from 4.2 percent previously estimated.


In revised national account data, the National Statistical Office stated, "Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2019-20 and 2018-19 stands at Rs 145.69 trillion and Rs 140.03 trillion, respectively, showing a growth of 4.0 percent in 2019-20 and 6.5 percent in 2018-19."


Real GDP or constant (2011-12) prices for 2018-19 were pegged at Rs 139.81 trillion in the first revision released in January 2020, representing a 6.1 percent increase.

"The growth in real GVA in 2019-20 was lower than in 2018-19," according to the data, "mainly due to relatively lesser growth in mining and quarrying, manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply, and different utility services, construction, trade, repair, hotels and restaurants, and finance related services."


The primary sector (agriculture, forestry, fishing, and mining and quarrying), secondary sector (manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services, and construction), and tertiary sector (services) are expected to grow at 3.3 percent, (-)1.1 percent, and 7.2 percent, respectively, in 2019-20, compared to 2.2 percent, 5.8 percent, and 7.2 percent in the previous year. In current prices, nominal net national income for 2019-20 is Rs 179.94 trillion, up from Rs 167.05 trillion in 2018-19, representing a 7.7% increase over the previous year's 10.3% increase.


For 2018-19 and 2019-20, per capita income, or per capita net national income at current prices, is estimated to be Rs 1,25,883 and Rs 1,34,186, respectively. At current prices, per capita, PFCE is estimated to be Rs 84,567 and Rs 91,790 in 2018-19 and 2019-20, respectively.


2021-2022:


The World Bank has kept India's economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year at 8.3%, citing that the recovery is still in its early stages.

According to the National Statistical Office's (NSO) first advanced estimates of national income released last week, the economy is expected to grow at 9.2% in 2021-22, exceeding the pre-COVID level in actual terms, owing to improved performance, particularly in the farm, mining, and manufacturing sectors.


"India's economy is expected to grow by 8.3% in the fiscal year 2021/22 (ending March 2022), unchanged from June's forecast, as the recovery has yet to gain traction."

According to the World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects, the resumption of contact-intensive services and ongoing but narrowing monetary and fiscal policy support should benefit the economy.


The report also stated that the growth forecasts for 2022-23 and 2023-24 have been upgraded to 8.7% and 6.8%, respectively. The upward revision reflects a brighter investment outlook, with private investment, particularly in manufacturing, benefiting from the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme and increased infrastructure investment.

"Continued structural reforms, a stronger-than-expected financial sector recovery, and measures to address financial sector challenges despite ongoing risks" will all help to boost growth.


As pent-up demand dissipates and fiscal and monetary support is unwound worldwide, global growth is expected to slow sharply from 5.5 percent in 2021 to 4.1 percent in 2022 and 3.2 percent in 2023.


0 comments